The Big One Is Coming (Updated)

UPDATE: After I posted this, Kathy and I went to Lowe's for wood and stuff, 'cause we're building shelves.  When we got back I checked the world and found this article by Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com. McMurphy sees some of the same things I do, but he's got more details. (I like it when I am agreed with.) And he also spells out a consequence that is perfectly certain, but I hadn't developed it.

First, I wrote: "We are headed to four giant conferences." Here's McMurphy:

With all of the speculation and connecting-the-dots scenarios surrounding conference realignment (Texas A&M to the SEC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State possibly to the Pac-12), the obvious end game was this: the ACC and Big East would be the final two conferences with possibly only one surviving. Sort of like a Thunderdome showdown: two conferences enter, one conference leaves. And the ACC took the initiative in guaranteeing its survival.

 Here is the clear inference - assuming there's only going to be 4 super conferences and that the Big Ten, the SEC and the Pac 12 are three of them; and that the Big 12 will not exist, then it's down to the ACC and the Big East for the final seat at the table. Today, the ACC looks like the winner.

That means the Big East is going away. McMurphy again, this time about a certain university named:

Notre Dame - This is where things get really interesting. The Irish always have wanted to remain an independent. And as long as the Big East is around for the Irish to have a landing spot for their Olympic sports, they will stay independent. However, if there no longer is a Big East, the Irish would be forced to join a conference to find a home for their Olympic sports. In other words: hello, Big Ten.

If you've read my posts on this topic, you know I've been saying all along this was about the Big Ten landing Notre Dame. Today, someone else says it, too.

ORIGINAL POST: The big one is on the way.

The big college athletic conference re-alignment, that is. The news Saturday is that Pitt and Syracuse have applied to join the ACC. Friday we heard that the regents at Texas will meet to discuss conference affiliation. Oh, it coming, all right. Kiss the Big 12 good-bye, if you can muster enough affection to smooch that shotgun-wedding style of a conference.

Here is where we stand:

Nebraska and Colorado, Big 12 members as recently as the spring, began play in new conferences this fall, the Big Ten and the Pac 12, respectively.

At the end of August Texas A&M said auf Wiedersehen to the Big 12 (not sure why they spoke German) and applied to join the SEC.

Within days of that announcement, Oklahoma said they wanted to explore their options, too.

Then Texas with their announcement.

Today, Pitt and Syracuse.

But the big finish is yet to come. Though it's on the way.

We can see where this is headed. Stronger conferences are expanding, picking up strong schools to deepen the quality of their membership. They are adding schools to increase the conference footprint and TV market. The number of schools that remain to be of benefit is shrinking with each announcement. The rapidity with which this is happening is accelerating, like a snowball rolling downhill.

If you are conference leader considering expansion, you probably are hearing alarms right now. The pool of prospective candidates just got smaller with Pitt and Syracuse's announcement. Especially for the Big Ten. Pitt and Syracuse might have been decent fits for that conference, but not now. Oklahoma probably goes west to the Pac 12, which has promised it will not stand pat if teams start to jump. Maybe Texas is looking at the Pac 12. You don't want to be a conference needing to expand and the only options that remain are a bunch of Iowa States. The SEC is going to look for a fourteenth member, but the speculation is that the super conferences will have 16 members. Who will they be? Act now, because once they're gone, they're gone.

I'll say again what I have believed about this from the beginning. The Big Ten started this and I think they will finish it. They've been quiet, but I don't think they've been sitting still. They'll go to 14 and maybe 16 and I think Missouri will be one of their choices, it makes too much sense.

The SEC is expanding, as is the ACC. The Pac 12 has promised to respond. Do you think the Big Ten will do nothing? Neither do I. We are headed to four giant conferences. And the Big Ten will not be left behind.

And neither will Notre Dame.

Yes, the big one is coming.

Big Ten Too Quiet

Oklahoma regents will meet in a few days to talk about athletic conference re-alignment. It is almost certain that OU will eventually leave the Big 12 Conference, probably for the Pac12. Oklahoma State may tag along. With the expected departure of Texas A & M next year, the Big 12 would be pared to 7 teams. Not much of a league at seven.

I don't think the league will survive that turn of events.

And then a kind of free agency will commence, with league-less remnants of the Big 12 looking for new conferences to align with. And conferences with an eye on improving their cachet, influence, and standing in the eyes of TV networks will begin picking prospective members to bring home to meet mother.

The rumors have begun to fly, of course. OU and Oklahoma State supposedly heading to the Pac 12. Texas to the Pac 12, to the ACC, or to Independent status. Kansas to the Pac 12, or the Big East. And Mizzou has been rumored to go just about everywhere: the SEC, the Pac 12, the Big East.

Everywhere except the Big Ten.

Has anyone noticed how quiet things have been from Big Ten land? Not a peep. Nothing from Big Ten schools. Nothing from coaches or administrators. With all the potential movement seemingly near, no school is  rumored to be going there. Is the Big Ten done with expansion? Have they no interest in adding any Big 12 schools?

In my view, it's too quiet.

I don't think the Big Ten will sit idly by while other conferences gobble up the cream of the Big 12. Again, I make the observation that Missouri is ideal for Big Ten membership. And is it coincidental that there has been a new-found discipline regarding leaks to the press on Missouri's part? I wonder. In other words, Mizzou's staff has been just as mum on the Tigers' options as the Big Ten has been on it's.

I think Mizzou is going to land in the Big Ten.

And I still think Notre Dame will, too.

The Ground Will Shift, II

It's hard to believe that less than a week ago, hardly a soul outside of the parties involved had any inkling the Pac-10 might be on the verge of inviting Texas and five other teams. But with The Conference Realignment Texas Hold 'em Game suddenly moving at breakneck speed, we could be sitting here a week from now looking at a radically altered landscape.

That was the assessment of an article Monday from SI.com. This article is worth some study because the writer lays out 16, count 'em, 16 scenarios for conference expansion. And for all we know, he hasn't listed what will actually occur.

ESPN today:

Nebraska's decision on whether to commit long term to the Big 12 or leave for a potential Big Ten invitation could come on Friday, a school told ESPN.com's Andy Katz on Tuesday. The source said the school is leaning toward the Big Ten, but an invitation hadn't yet been extended, and there was no indication when that would occur.

The Oklahoman on the state of the Big 12 Conference:

The clock ticks down. The Big 12 could die, maybe as early as Friday, as Nebraska's deadline looms. Nearer My God To Thee. Some lament, wondering what will happen if the league gives up the ghost. I wonder what will happen if the Big 12 lives. You want chaos, let these schools stay together 10 more minutes. Someone might torch a campus.

Orlando Sentinel on the possibility of Florida State leaving the ACC for the Southeast Conference:

Now, two decades later, as another round of college football expansion seems imminent, there is a chance the SEC will come knocking on FSU's door again. Seriously, does anybody really think the big, bad SEC is going to stand by idly and let other conferences expand to a point where they surpass the SEC in power, prestige and number of TV viewers? If the SEC is going to expand, why not pursue Florida State – a school that fits into SEC both geographically and philosophically.

The writer of this story advises FSU to stay away from the SEC because playing and winning the ACC is a clearer path to championships. What article leaves out though is that if a bunch of teams begin gravitating toward four super conferences, the ACC would be a shell of itself, if it remains together.