The Big One Is Coming (Updated)

UPDATE: After I posted this, Kathy and I went to Lowe's for wood and stuff, 'cause we're building shelves.  When we got back I checked the world and found this article by Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com. McMurphy sees some of the same things I do, but he's got more details. (I like it when I am agreed with.) And he also spells out a consequence that is perfectly certain, but I hadn't developed it.

First, I wrote: "We are headed to four giant conferences." Here's McMurphy:

With all of the speculation and connecting-the-dots scenarios surrounding conference realignment (Texas A&M to the SEC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State possibly to the Pac-12), the obvious end game was this: the ACC and Big East would be the final two conferences with possibly only one surviving. Sort of like a Thunderdome showdown: two conferences enter, one conference leaves. And the ACC took the initiative in guaranteeing its survival.

 Here is the clear inference - assuming there's only going to be 4 super conferences and that the Big Ten, the SEC and the Pac 12 are three of them; and that the Big 12 will not exist, then it's down to the ACC and the Big East for the final seat at the table. Today, the ACC looks like the winner.

That means the Big East is going away. McMurphy again, this time about a certain university named:

Notre Dame - This is where things get really interesting. The Irish always have wanted to remain an independent. And as long as the Big East is around for the Irish to have a landing spot for their Olympic sports, they will stay independent. However, if there no longer is a Big East, the Irish would be forced to join a conference to find a home for their Olympic sports. In other words: hello, Big Ten.

If you've read my posts on this topic, you know I've been saying all along this was about the Big Ten landing Notre Dame. Today, someone else says it, too.

ORIGINAL POST: The big one is on the way.

The big college athletic conference re-alignment, that is. The news Saturday is that Pitt and Syracuse have applied to join the ACC. Friday we heard that the regents at Texas will meet to discuss conference affiliation. Oh, it coming, all right. Kiss the Big 12 good-bye, if you can muster enough affection to smooch that shotgun-wedding style of a conference.

Here is where we stand:

Nebraska and Colorado, Big 12 members as recently as the spring, began play in new conferences this fall, the Big Ten and the Pac 12, respectively.

At the end of August Texas A&M said auf Wiedersehen to the Big 12 (not sure why they spoke German) and applied to join the SEC.

Within days of that announcement, Oklahoma said they wanted to explore their options, too.

Then Texas with their announcement.

Today, Pitt and Syracuse.

But the big finish is yet to come. Though it's on the way.

We can see where this is headed. Stronger conferences are expanding, picking up strong schools to deepen the quality of their membership. They are adding schools to increase the conference footprint and TV market. The number of schools that remain to be of benefit is shrinking with each announcement. The rapidity with which this is happening is accelerating, like a snowball rolling downhill.

If you are conference leader considering expansion, you probably are hearing alarms right now. The pool of prospective candidates just got smaller with Pitt and Syracuse's announcement. Especially for the Big Ten. Pitt and Syracuse might have been decent fits for that conference, but not now. Oklahoma probably goes west to the Pac 12, which has promised it will not stand pat if teams start to jump. Maybe Texas is looking at the Pac 12. You don't want to be a conference needing to expand and the only options that remain are a bunch of Iowa States. The SEC is going to look for a fourteenth member, but the speculation is that the super conferences will have 16 members. Who will they be? Act now, because once they're gone, they're gone.

I'll say again what I have believed about this from the beginning. The Big Ten started this and I think they will finish it. They've been quiet, but I don't think they've been sitting still. They'll go to 14 and maybe 16 and I think Missouri will be one of their choices, it makes too much sense.

The SEC is expanding, as is the ACC. The Pac 12 has promised to respond. Do you think the Big Ten will do nothing? Neither do I. We are headed to four giant conferences. And the Big Ten will not be left behind.

And neither will Notre Dame.

Yes, the big one is coming.

Adios, Big 12

The Big 12 Conference is not long for this world.

I don't see how any other conclusion can be reached. The Board of Regents at Texas A & M has given the school president authority to take any action he deems necessary in terms of conference realignment. There was a time last summer when it seemed A & M might be headed to the Southeastern Conference, but they remained in the Big 12, even as Nebraska and Colorado bolted for the Big 10 and the Pac 10 (now Pac 12) respectively. It was thought, after the shuffling of last summer that there would be some peace for a while. An uneasy peace to be sure. No one was really confident that the forced marriage of the old Big 8 and refugees from the defunct Southwest Conference could survive long term, especially after last summer's defections. I suspect most thought it would be several seasons before the dominoes started to fall again, however.

But that would be wrong.

Now, there is no timetable for anything to happen and no invitations have be formally extended to A & M, at least as I write this. But it seems clear that A & M wants to move and when the SEC decides to invite them, and they probably will, then the Aggies will go. And the SEC will have 13 teams and the Big 12 will have 9. The Big 12 can live with 9, but might not. The SEC cannot live with 13 and will not. And you know what that means boys and girls? Some other team is going to join the SEC.

Who will it be?

We don't know, but there are some suspects. They are, in no particular order: Florida State, Clemson, and our beloved Missouri Tigers. Yes, some are suggesting that Mizzou could go to the SEC. I don't know what to make of that. On the one hand, it would be flattering to belong to the country's best college football conference. You want to be the best, you have to beat the best and why not be in the best league? On the other hand, Mizzou is not really a cultural fit in the Southeastern Conference. If we were to switch, the Big 10 is a better fit.

Obviously, it's out of my hands but for what it's worth - say "Yes" if the SEC comes calling, but in the meantime, hope for the Big 10 to send an invite.

In any event, if A & M leaves (or 'when A & M leaves'), I don't think the Big 12 survives. They can, but the Big 10 and the Pac 12 will not stand pat if the conference jumping starts up again. Mizzou will start to look like a nice piece to add somewhere and maybe the Big 10 decides they want them before somebody else takes them. Kansas will look good to somebody and for heaven's sake, so will Oklahoma. And I've heard there's another school in Texas that's pretty competitive. Maybe they go somewhere.

How ever it shakes out, the Big 12 is on its last legs.

The Ground Will Shift, VI

This morning I was all prepared to tell you that Texas A & M was leaning toward joining the Southeast Conference (SEC) and that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would join up with the Pac 10. This was indicated by ESPN.com.

Then I was going to tell you that all of that had been rumored for a few days and not to forget that the end game for all this shuffling around was the Big Ten Conference's desire to have Notre Dame join them. To that end, the next logical move, or moves, would be that the Big Ten would make moves as if to pick off a team or two from out east. Say a Maryland from the ACC, or Rutgers or Syracuse from the Big East. There has to be some shaking out there to get Notre Dame a little skittish.

Well, hold the phone.

Stories abound right now that Texas will stay in the Big 12, or be willing to listen to the idea of staying, instead of jumping to the Pac 10. If the Longhorns and their Big 12 South brethren decide to stay, the conference would go forward with 10 members. And it would appear to bring the conference jumping to a halt. For now.

Keep you eye on Big Ten, however. If I am right about Notre Dame being the end game, the Big Ten will have to do something to keep the chaos going. And they probably have to do something out east.

Stay tuned.