The Big One Is Coming (Updated)

UPDATE: After I posted this, Kathy and I went to Lowe's for wood and stuff, 'cause we're building shelves.  When we got back I checked the world and found this article by Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com. McMurphy sees some of the same things I do, but he's got more details. (I like it when I am agreed with.) And he also spells out a consequence that is perfectly certain, but I hadn't developed it.

First, I wrote: "We are headed to four giant conferences." Here's McMurphy:

With all of the speculation and connecting-the-dots scenarios surrounding conference realignment (Texas A&M to the SEC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State possibly to the Pac-12), the obvious end game was this: the ACC and Big East would be the final two conferences with possibly only one surviving. Sort of like a Thunderdome showdown: two conferences enter, one conference leaves. And the ACC took the initiative in guaranteeing its survival.

 Here is the clear inference - assuming there's only going to be 4 super conferences and that the Big Ten, the SEC and the Pac 12 are three of them; and that the Big 12 will not exist, then it's down to the ACC and the Big East for the final seat at the table. Today, the ACC looks like the winner.

That means the Big East is going away. McMurphy again, this time about a certain university named:

Notre Dame - This is where things get really interesting. The Irish always have wanted to remain an independent. And as long as the Big East is around for the Irish to have a landing spot for their Olympic sports, they will stay independent. However, if there no longer is a Big East, the Irish would be forced to join a conference to find a home for their Olympic sports. In other words: hello, Big Ten.

If you've read my posts on this topic, you know I've been saying all along this was about the Big Ten landing Notre Dame. Today, someone else says it, too.

ORIGINAL POST: The big one is on the way.

The big college athletic conference re-alignment, that is. The news Saturday is that Pitt and Syracuse have applied to join the ACC. Friday we heard that the regents at Texas will meet to discuss conference affiliation. Oh, it coming, all right. Kiss the Big 12 good-bye, if you can muster enough affection to smooch that shotgun-wedding style of a conference.

Here is where we stand:

Nebraska and Colorado, Big 12 members as recently as the spring, began play in new conferences this fall, the Big Ten and the Pac 12, respectively.

At the end of August Texas A&M said auf Wiedersehen to the Big 12 (not sure why they spoke German) and applied to join the SEC.

Within days of that announcement, Oklahoma said they wanted to explore their options, too.

Then Texas with their announcement.

Today, Pitt and Syracuse.

But the big finish is yet to come. Though it's on the way.

We can see where this is headed. Stronger conferences are expanding, picking up strong schools to deepen the quality of their membership. They are adding schools to increase the conference footprint and TV market. The number of schools that remain to be of benefit is shrinking with each announcement. The rapidity with which this is happening is accelerating, like a snowball rolling downhill.

If you are conference leader considering expansion, you probably are hearing alarms right now. The pool of prospective candidates just got smaller with Pitt and Syracuse's announcement. Especially for the Big Ten. Pitt and Syracuse might have been decent fits for that conference, but not now. Oklahoma probably goes west to the Pac 12, which has promised it will not stand pat if teams start to jump. Maybe Texas is looking at the Pac 12. You don't want to be a conference needing to expand and the only options that remain are a bunch of Iowa States. The SEC is going to look for a fourteenth member, but the speculation is that the super conferences will have 16 members. Who will they be? Act now, because once they're gone, they're gone.

I'll say again what I have believed about this from the beginning. The Big Ten started this and I think they will finish it. They've been quiet, but I don't think they've been sitting still. They'll go to 14 and maybe 16 and I think Missouri will be one of their choices, it makes too much sense.

The SEC is expanding, as is the ACC. The Pac 12 has promised to respond. Do you think the Big Ten will do nothing? Neither do I. We are headed to four giant conferences. And the Big Ten will not be left behind.

And neither will Notre Dame.

Yes, the big one is coming.

Big Ten Too Quiet

Oklahoma regents will meet in a few days to talk about athletic conference re-alignment. It is almost certain that OU will eventually leave the Big 12 Conference, probably for the Pac12. Oklahoma State may tag along. With the expected departure of Texas A & M next year, the Big 12 would be pared to 7 teams. Not much of a league at seven.

I don't think the league will survive that turn of events.

And then a kind of free agency will commence, with league-less remnants of the Big 12 looking for new conferences to align with. And conferences with an eye on improving their cachet, influence, and standing in the eyes of TV networks will begin picking prospective members to bring home to meet mother.

The rumors have begun to fly, of course. OU and Oklahoma State supposedly heading to the Pac 12. Texas to the Pac 12, to the ACC, or to Independent status. Kansas to the Pac 12, or the Big East. And Mizzou has been rumored to go just about everywhere: the SEC, the Pac 12, the Big East.

Everywhere except the Big Ten.

Has anyone noticed how quiet things have been from Big Ten land? Not a peep. Nothing from Big Ten schools. Nothing from coaches or administrators. With all the potential movement seemingly near, no school is  rumored to be going there. Is the Big Ten done with expansion? Have they no interest in adding any Big 12 schools?

In my view, it's too quiet.

I don't think the Big Ten will sit idly by while other conferences gobble up the cream of the Big 12. Again, I make the observation that Missouri is ideal for Big Ten membership. And is it coincidental that there has been a new-found discipline regarding leaks to the press on Missouri's part? I wonder. In other words, Mizzou's staff has been just as mum on the Tigers' options as the Big Ten has been on it's.

I think Mizzou is going to land in the Big Ten.

And I still think Notre Dame will, too.

Adios, Big 12

The Big 12 Conference is not long for this world.

I don't see how any other conclusion can be reached. The Board of Regents at Texas A & M has given the school president authority to take any action he deems necessary in terms of conference realignment. There was a time last summer when it seemed A & M might be headed to the Southeastern Conference, but they remained in the Big 12, even as Nebraska and Colorado bolted for the Big 10 and the Pac 10 (now Pac 12) respectively. It was thought, after the shuffling of last summer that there would be some peace for a while. An uneasy peace to be sure. No one was really confident that the forced marriage of the old Big 8 and refugees from the defunct Southwest Conference could survive long term, especially after last summer's defections. I suspect most thought it would be several seasons before the dominoes started to fall again, however.

But that would be wrong.

Now, there is no timetable for anything to happen and no invitations have be formally extended to A & M, at least as I write this. But it seems clear that A & M wants to move and when the SEC decides to invite them, and they probably will, then the Aggies will go. And the SEC will have 13 teams and the Big 12 will have 9. The Big 12 can live with 9, but might not. The SEC cannot live with 13 and will not. And you know what that means boys and girls? Some other team is going to join the SEC.

Who will it be?

We don't know, but there are some suspects. They are, in no particular order: Florida State, Clemson, and our beloved Missouri Tigers. Yes, some are suggesting that Mizzou could go to the SEC. I don't know what to make of that. On the one hand, it would be flattering to belong to the country's best college football conference. You want to be the best, you have to beat the best and why not be in the best league? On the other hand, Mizzou is not really a cultural fit in the Southeastern Conference. If we were to switch, the Big 10 is a better fit.

Obviously, it's out of my hands but for what it's worth - say "Yes" if the SEC comes calling, but in the meantime, hope for the Big 10 to send an invite.

In any event, if A & M leaves (or 'when A & M leaves'), I don't think the Big 12 survives. They can, but the Big 10 and the Pac 12 will not stand pat if the conference jumping starts up again. Mizzou will start to look like a nice piece to add somewhere and maybe the Big 10 decides they want them before somebody else takes them. Kansas will look good to somebody and for heaven's sake, so will Oklahoma. And I've heard there's another school in Texas that's pretty competitive. Maybe they go somewhere.

How ever it shakes out, the Big 12 is on its last legs.

The Ground Will Shift, VI

So the Big 12 conference did not implode and no one saw that coming. Or not coming.

So, for now, it appears things will settle down and that would mean my prediction that Notre Dame will join the Big Ten would be incorrect. But I will stand by it.

The commissioner of the Big Ten said they would look to expand over an 18-24 month period and we are roughly six months into that.

Things may be quiet for a while, but I would not be surprised if there is more movement in the near future.

The Ground Will Shift, VI

This morning I was all prepared to tell you that Texas A & M was leaning toward joining the Southeast Conference (SEC) and that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would join up with the Pac 10. This was indicated by ESPN.com.

Then I was going to tell you that all of that had been rumored for a few days and not to forget that the end game for all this shuffling around was the Big Ten Conference's desire to have Notre Dame join them. To that end, the next logical move, or moves, would be that the Big Ten would make moves as if to pick off a team or two from out east. Say a Maryland from the ACC, or Rutgers or Syracuse from the Big East. There has to be some shaking out there to get Notre Dame a little skittish.

Well, hold the phone.

Stories abound right now that Texas will stay in the Big 12, or be willing to listen to the idea of staying, instead of jumping to the Pac 10. If the Longhorns and their Big 12 South brethren decide to stay, the conference would go forward with 10 members. And it would appear to bring the conference jumping to a halt. For now.

Keep you eye on Big Ten, however. If I am right about Notre Dame being the end game, the Big Ten will have to do something to keep the chaos going. And they probably have to do something out east.

Stay tuned.

The Ground Will Shift, V

Subtitle: The One Where I Tell You It's Not All About the Money.

I have been tracking the recent developments in national college athletics and posting here the relevant details. This morning, for example, if you Googled 'big 12' you could find over 5,000 articles. Not everything is worth looking at, but obviously there is no lack of data. (Previously on Central Standard, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.)

A recurring theme in a number of those articles has been the lament, "It's all about the money!" as an explanation for all the changes in the college landscape that have occurred or are anticipated. This is a worn out phrase, an easy crutch for people to use as a club to whallop whatever is going on that they do not approve of, as if money is wrong. What it generally reveals is the speaker doesn't have as much money he wants and is mad that somebody else is getting some. In other words, the reaction is all about the money, but that irony is never grasped.

To the point: I don't believe that the changes that we are seeing the conference alignments are all about the money. Let me quickly add that I'm not saying money is not a factor. Of course it is. It's an ingredient in all of this - a major one. But my point is, it's not the origin of this chaos. It is definitely a residue, but it's not what it's all about.

What it is all about is forcing Notre Dame to join the Big 10. That's it. That's all. Let me tell you why I think so.

This chaos we are seeing in June 2010 began in December 2009. Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney said the conference would seek to expand from it's then 11 teams. He speculated on a time frame for accomplishing this of about 18 to 24 months. Immediately, everyone knew he had his sights set on Notre Dame. But everyone also jumped to the next thing we all 'knew' and that was ND has always been, and longed to always be, independent in football. Then everyone made the next jump which was to start guessing about which other teams made the most sense for the Big 10 to invite.

From that time until now, Delaney and the Big Ten have said very little publicly. Very neat. One school whose inclusion in the conference which made sense to almost every observer is Missouri. Good academics, competitive and improving football and logically geographically situated. Mizzou, everyone agreed, was logical. It was deemed a matter of time before the Tigers would be in the Big Ten.

But a funny thing happened on the way to what we all knew. There came rumblings of Nebraska having struck the fancy of the Big Ten and the Huskers have everything Mizzou has, only the football is better. (Darn it!) Then Texas, whose behavior is worthy of many posts, began to intimate that if Nebraska left, they had no interest in the Big 12. It was then clear that if Nebraska left, the Texas schools would bolt, probably to the Pac 10. Then it came out that Colorado would join the Pac 10 and they did. Then Nebraska joined the Big Ten. Now the Texas schools are free to make their own deal.

It looks as if the Pac 10 will add two or three Texas schools plus the two Oklahoma schools from the Big 12. The Big 12 will be history. Texas A & M may or may not go to the SEC. The SEC and the ACC and the Big East will consider their options and begin nabbing schools or have schools leave them or both. It's chaos.

Meanwhile, independent Notre Dame sits and watches one conference die, the remaining conferences strengthen and has to begin to ask itself, "Is the path to football glory, prominence and championships enhanced or weakened by independent status? Is the BCS going to favor the strong conferences? Or the strong schools in those conferences? What will happen to the Big East, where all our other athletics compete?" The importance of Notre Dame is that it's a school with a national audience. When they play, people are interested and TVs are on. Alumni are all over the country and the South Bend campus fits geographically into the footprint of the Big Ten TV network, which already is in 30 to 35 percent of homes in the country. Yes, that's a money part.

By taking Nebraska, the Big Ten reduced the number of possible seats at the conference's table. How many are available? Two more? Four more? I don't know. Neither does Notre Dame. Remember Missouri is a logical choice, so there may be one less seat. Maryland makes sense, too, so there's another seat gone, possibly. What about Rutgers or Syracuse and the New York City market? You know how to play musical chairs, don't you?

There is chaos out there and the herd may stampede very soon. Options will begin to disappear and Notre Dame knows it. Their AD said this thing will all settle out in 45-60 days. I think there is more meaning in his words than just the definitions. I think Notre Dame will finally jump and they will jump to the Big Ten and it will be in 45-60 days.

Remember how it began? An announcement that the Big Ten was looking to expand and they have hardly lifted a finger since and we've got chaos. Everyone knew they wanted Notre Dame and I think Notre Dame will run right into their waiting arms.

The Ground Will Shift, IV

Subtitle: The One Where Mizzou is Left at the Altar.

From NJ.com:

According to a report on orangebloods.com Nebraska has agreed to leave the Big 12 and join the Big Ten and will announce that decision on Friday. The report said if Nebraska leaves, the Big 12 will break apart.

The report also lists the Big Ten's priority wish list, as reported by ESPN, with Notre Dame being No. 1, Nebraska No. 2 and either Rutgers or Maryland as No. 3.

Well, now Kansas can laugh at me.

It appears that Nebraska has decided to join the Big Ten and it is only logical to assume they would not do so without assurances an invitation was forthcoming. If so, the Big Ten is now 12 teams and can hold a conference football title game at the conclusion of each season. This was a big goal for them. What would motivate them to add any more schools? I'm not sure what it would be and if Missouri has it.

Missouri still appears to be waiting for an invitation from the Big Ten, according to multiple sources.

An athletic director with knowledge of the Big Ten said, "Missouri is getting cold shoulder from Big Ten."

The fact is we don't know anything about Mizzou, in or out. Officials in Columbia have been very tight-lipped and nobody else is talking. So while it's not certain they are not invited, there's not much reason to hope. Yet.

From the Kansas City Star:

Missouri, meanwhile, is making my job a lot tougher but finally doing the right thing. Following advice of consultants hired to help guide them through the shoals of expansion, MU officials are maintaining a silence they have been unable to pull off for the last 25 years. Missouri has always been surrounded by "sources" more than willing to tell the media exactly what is going down. Now the powers that be at Mizzou are remaining mum in the face of rampant speculation and quite obviously have not shared details of what is or is not going on with a circle of people large enough to spring leaks.

The Ground Will Shift, III

For the Kansas Jayhawks and their proud basketball heritage, all this could not be more demeaning. All of a sudden, Kansas' status as a major player in college athletics has been placed in the hands of Nebraska and -- humiliation of humiliations -- archrival Missouri. (ESPN.com)

Heh.

Look, I understand the uncertainty. Later in this post we will see that Mizzou's fate is uncertain, as well. But still, it's KU. There's more:

While (Mizzou and Nebraska) decide whether to abandon the Big 12 for the more lucrative Big Ten, Kansas sits and sweats. A pullout by the Huskers and Tigers could result in the collapse of the Big 12 and strip Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State of the safety and privileges of membership in a Bowl Championship Series conference.

Heh.

I don't enjoy the demise of the Big 12, the successor of the Big 8, the longtime home of Mizzou athletics. But the clock was ticking as soon as Texas joined. Our neat little world became the Longhorns' playground and college athletics would never be the same.

ESPN Rumors is reporting that if Notre Dame decides to get into the Big Ten quickly enough, bringing that conference's membership to 12, then there may be no further expansion by the conference. This is the part where Mizzou gets left with nowhere to go. If Nebraska and Missouri do not commit to the Big 12, Texas, Colorado and four others will jump to the Pac-10. Couple that with the Big Ten suddenly being satisfied with adding only Notre Dame and the Tigers are out in the cold. This scenario is why I speculated that the Big Ten stirred this pot to create chaos to entice the Fighting Irish. The Big 10 has been strangely quiet since it began the whole thing.

Stay tuned.

The Ground Will Shift, II

It's hard to believe that less than a week ago, hardly a soul outside of the parties involved had any inkling the Pac-10 might be on the verge of inviting Texas and five other teams. But with The Conference Realignment Texas Hold 'em Game suddenly moving at breakneck speed, we could be sitting here a week from now looking at a radically altered landscape.

That was the assessment of an article Monday from SI.com. This article is worth some study because the writer lays out 16, count 'em, 16 scenarios for conference expansion. And for all we know, he hasn't listed what will actually occur.

ESPN today:

Nebraska's decision on whether to commit long term to the Big 12 or leave for a potential Big Ten invitation could come on Friday, a school told ESPN.com's Andy Katz on Tuesday. The source said the school is leaning toward the Big Ten, but an invitation hadn't yet been extended, and there was no indication when that would occur.

The Oklahoman on the state of the Big 12 Conference:

The clock ticks down. The Big 12 could die, maybe as early as Friday, as Nebraska's deadline looms. Nearer My God To Thee. Some lament, wondering what will happen if the league gives up the ghost. I wonder what will happen if the Big 12 lives. You want chaos, let these schools stay together 10 more minutes. Someone might torch a campus.

Orlando Sentinel on the possibility of Florida State leaving the ACC for the Southeast Conference:

Now, two decades later, as another round of college football expansion seems imminent, there is a chance the SEC will come knocking on FSU's door again. Seriously, does anybody really think the big, bad SEC is going to stand by idly and let other conferences expand to a point where they surpass the SEC in power, prestige and number of TV viewers? If the SEC is going to expand, why not pursue Florida State – a school that fits into SEC both geographically and philosophically.

The writer of this story advises FSU to stay away from the SEC because playing and winning the ACC is a clearer path to championships. What article leaves out though is that if a bunch of teams begin gravitating toward four super conferences, the ACC would be a shell of itself, if it remains together.

The Ground Will Shift

I may change the name of my blog to "After The Fact".

I just deleted two posts from the queue because the subject I was going to write about is old news already, so there's nothing for me to say. This happens more than you know and that is why the "After The Fact" moniker is apt.

Which leads me to get right on this topic because I've been turning it over in my mind for weeks now and by the weekend there may be very little left to anticipate.

The national college athletics landscape will probably undergo a change soon. This is an understatement of the one hundredth magnitude. Remember when the Big 10 added Penn State? Remember when Arkansas left the Southwest Conference for the Southeast Conference? Remember how the SWC fell apart and four of those schools joined the Big 8 to form the Big 12? Kid stuff. All of it, kid stuff compared to what may transpire in the weeks and months ahead and the first shoe may drop this weekend.

Some months ago the Big 10 Conference made it known that it intended to expand to at least 12 teams. Once a conference gets to 12, it can create divisions and hold a conference championship football game. It can be lucrative and keeps the conference in the news during the lull before the bowl games start. It is believed that the Big 10 is interested in asking Missouri to join. Additionally, it came out that the Big 10 might not stop at 12 but might go to 14 or 16 teams, forming a super conference. Possible additions included Notre Dame, UConn, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska, Kansas and Texas, as well as Missouri.

This news caused other conferences and media outlets to begin speculation about what Big 10 expansion might mean. Simply it would mean the first domino. Other conferences would contemplate, probably pursue, getting to super conference size of 14 or 16. Logically, they cannot ALL get that large and it would mean that some conference(s) would cease to exist. Most often mentioned as likely expanders were the Southeast and the Pac-10.

But that was just openers. This week the floodgates opened. The Big 12 held their annual meeting and apparently delivered an ultimatum to Missouri and Nebraska to declare their intentions concerning conference fealty by Friday.

At the same time, the Pac-10 was meeting and it's commissioner was given the liberty to extend to any number of schools invitations to join if he, the commissioner, thought it in the best interest of the conference. Near the end of those meetings, a website believed to be credible reported that the Pac-10 would extend invitations to the Big 12 South schools, minus Baylor, plus Colorado, effectively blowing up the Big 12.

That is roughly where we are without anything actually happening. Many questions loom. What will Missouri and Nebraska say Friday? This preemptive strike by the Big 10 may be turned into a reactionary move if the Pac-10 moves first. Will they? Whither Notre Dame, which treasures it's independence in football, but may lose it's conference for other sports, the Big East, in all the upheaval. If Notre Dame finally joins the Big 10, will that be all the conference does? And if Big 10 didn't have any more interest in Missouri, but the Texas schools pull out of the Big 12 killing that league, will Mizzou be left with no conference? Was the Big 10's announcement of its intentions designed to create chaos in order to drive Notre Dame to the safety conference alignment?

What looked like an 18-month story has turned into a fluid situation that changes daily.

And I wonder if the University of Texas should be independent. They killed the Southwest Conference and they are about to drive the Big 12 into the ground. Not because they are destructive, but because of competitive imbalance. Nobody can stay with them. If I were the Pac-10, I would be careful what I asked for unless I want the Longhorns winning the conference most of the time.

Wow

We've recently heard hints of the Big 10 Conference's desire to expand beyond it's 11 schools and add a 12th so the conference could put on a football title game between two divisions. There has been much speculation about which school might be in the mix, with Missouri prominent in the rumors.

This kind of talk is not new and I have long thought, as a Mizzou fan, that moving to the Big 10 would be desirable.

Today I read of a plan that is daring, bold and speculative. From Bill Livingston of the Cleveland Plain Dealer -

The Big Ten, with 11 members, is seriously considering expanding, either to 12 or to an even Bigger 14.

Expansion by one member is a plan driven by television markets. It should focus on Connecticut, and I have reason to believe that is exactly what is happening at Big Ten headquarters in Chicago.

The second expansion plan is bigger in numbers and is driven by Midwestern geography. I believe that is being considered in Chicago, too.

Reasons for UConn -

Luring UConn from the Big East would give the Big Ten a very big footprint in the television market bonanza of the Northeast. Media outlets in the nation's media capital, New York, cover the Huskies. UConn is a presence in the Boston market.

Competitively, adding UConn would have the approximate effect in basketball of adding North Carolina. It would be greater, if you factor in UConn's dominant women's team.

Adding UConn is surprising enough. Get a load of this -

The second plan to grow by three members starts with Missouri. If the Big Ten is going to go west, it would not gain that much from the addition of Missouri alone, in terms of markets. Illinois is already a presence in the St. Louis market, and the TV market in Kansas City in not big enough to be a deal-maker.

The Big Ten, however, would get a big push in national profile if, along with Missouri, it added Nebraska, which is almost back to being Nebraska in football, and Kansas, a premier basketball program.

It seems certain the Big 10 is going to make some move but just what we don't know. It will be fun to watch this story unfold.