The Big One Is Coming (Updated)

UPDATE: After I posted this, Kathy and I went to Lowe's for wood and stuff, 'cause we're building shelves.  When we got back I checked the world and found this article by Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com. McMurphy sees some of the same things I do, but he's got more details. (I like it when I am agreed with.) And he also spells out a consequence that is perfectly certain, but I hadn't developed it.

First, I wrote: "We are headed to four giant conferences." Here's McMurphy:

With all of the speculation and connecting-the-dots scenarios surrounding conference realignment (Texas A&M to the SEC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State possibly to the Pac-12), the obvious end game was this: the ACC and Big East would be the final two conferences with possibly only one surviving. Sort of like a Thunderdome showdown: two conferences enter, one conference leaves. And the ACC took the initiative in guaranteeing its survival.

 Here is the clear inference - assuming there's only going to be 4 super conferences and that the Big Ten, the SEC and the Pac 12 are three of them; and that the Big 12 will not exist, then it's down to the ACC and the Big East for the final seat at the table. Today, the ACC looks like the winner.

That means the Big East is going away. McMurphy again, this time about a certain university named:

Notre Dame - This is where things get really interesting. The Irish always have wanted to remain an independent. And as long as the Big East is around for the Irish to have a landing spot for their Olympic sports, they will stay independent. However, if there no longer is a Big East, the Irish would be forced to join a conference to find a home for their Olympic sports. In other words: hello, Big Ten.

If you've read my posts on this topic, you know I've been saying all along this was about the Big Ten landing Notre Dame. Today, someone else says it, too.

ORIGINAL POST: The big one is on the way.

The big college athletic conference re-alignment, that is. The news Saturday is that Pitt and Syracuse have applied to join the ACC. Friday we heard that the regents at Texas will meet to discuss conference affiliation. Oh, it coming, all right. Kiss the Big 12 good-bye, if you can muster enough affection to smooch that shotgun-wedding style of a conference.

Here is where we stand:

Nebraska and Colorado, Big 12 members as recently as the spring, began play in new conferences this fall, the Big Ten and the Pac 12, respectively.

At the end of August Texas A&M said auf Wiedersehen to the Big 12 (not sure why they spoke German) and applied to join the SEC.

Within days of that announcement, Oklahoma said they wanted to explore their options, too.

Then Texas with their announcement.

Today, Pitt and Syracuse.

But the big finish is yet to come. Though it's on the way.

We can see where this is headed. Stronger conferences are expanding, picking up strong schools to deepen the quality of their membership. They are adding schools to increase the conference footprint and TV market. The number of schools that remain to be of benefit is shrinking with each announcement. The rapidity with which this is happening is accelerating, like a snowball rolling downhill.

If you are conference leader considering expansion, you probably are hearing alarms right now. The pool of prospective candidates just got smaller with Pitt and Syracuse's announcement. Especially for the Big Ten. Pitt and Syracuse might have been decent fits for that conference, but not now. Oklahoma probably goes west to the Pac 12, which has promised it will not stand pat if teams start to jump. Maybe Texas is looking at the Pac 12. You don't want to be a conference needing to expand and the only options that remain are a bunch of Iowa States. The SEC is going to look for a fourteenth member, but the speculation is that the super conferences will have 16 members. Who will they be? Act now, because once they're gone, they're gone.

I'll say again what I have believed about this from the beginning. The Big Ten started this and I think they will finish it. They've been quiet, but I don't think they've been sitting still. They'll go to 14 and maybe 16 and I think Missouri will be one of their choices, it makes too much sense.

The SEC is expanding, as is the ACC. The Pac 12 has promised to respond. Do you think the Big Ten will do nothing? Neither do I. We are headed to four giant conferences. And the Big Ten will not be left behind.

And neither will Notre Dame.

Yes, the big one is coming.

The Ground Will Shift, VI

So the Big 12 conference did not implode and no one saw that coming. Or not coming.

So, for now, it appears things will settle down and that would mean my prediction that Notre Dame will join the Big Ten would be incorrect. But I will stand by it.

The commissioner of the Big Ten said they would look to expand over an 18-24 month period and we are roughly six months into that.

Things may be quiet for a while, but I would not be surprised if there is more movement in the near future.

The Ground Will Shift, VI

This morning I was all prepared to tell you that Texas A & M was leaning toward joining the Southeast Conference (SEC) and that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would join up with the Pac 10. This was indicated by ESPN.com.

Then I was going to tell you that all of that had been rumored for a few days and not to forget that the end game for all this shuffling around was the Big Ten Conference's desire to have Notre Dame join them. To that end, the next logical move, or moves, would be that the Big Ten would make moves as if to pick off a team or two from out east. Say a Maryland from the ACC, or Rutgers or Syracuse from the Big East. There has to be some shaking out there to get Notre Dame a little skittish.

Well, hold the phone.

Stories abound right now that Texas will stay in the Big 12, or be willing to listen to the idea of staying, instead of jumping to the Pac 10. If the Longhorns and their Big 12 South brethren decide to stay, the conference would go forward with 10 members. And it would appear to bring the conference jumping to a halt. For now.

Keep you eye on Big Ten, however. If I am right about Notre Dame being the end game, the Big Ten will have to do something to keep the chaos going. And they probably have to do something out east.

Stay tuned.

The Ground Will Shift, V

Subtitle: The One Where I Tell You It's Not All About the Money.

I have been tracking the recent developments in national college athletics and posting here the relevant details. This morning, for example, if you Googled 'big 12' you could find over 5,000 articles. Not everything is worth looking at, but obviously there is no lack of data. (Previously on Central Standard, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.)

A recurring theme in a number of those articles has been the lament, "It's all about the money!" as an explanation for all the changes in the college landscape that have occurred or are anticipated. This is a worn out phrase, an easy crutch for people to use as a club to whallop whatever is going on that they do not approve of, as if money is wrong. What it generally reveals is the speaker doesn't have as much money he wants and is mad that somebody else is getting some. In other words, the reaction is all about the money, but that irony is never grasped.

To the point: I don't believe that the changes that we are seeing the conference alignments are all about the money. Let me quickly add that I'm not saying money is not a factor. Of course it is. It's an ingredient in all of this - a major one. But my point is, it's not the origin of this chaos. It is definitely a residue, but it's not what it's all about.

What it is all about is forcing Notre Dame to join the Big 10. That's it. That's all. Let me tell you why I think so.

This chaos we are seeing in June 2010 began in December 2009. Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney said the conference would seek to expand from it's then 11 teams. He speculated on a time frame for accomplishing this of about 18 to 24 months. Immediately, everyone knew he had his sights set on Notre Dame. But everyone also jumped to the next thing we all 'knew' and that was ND has always been, and longed to always be, independent in football. Then everyone made the next jump which was to start guessing about which other teams made the most sense for the Big 10 to invite.

From that time until now, Delaney and the Big Ten have said very little publicly. Very neat. One school whose inclusion in the conference which made sense to almost every observer is Missouri. Good academics, competitive and improving football and logically geographically situated. Mizzou, everyone agreed, was logical. It was deemed a matter of time before the Tigers would be in the Big Ten.

But a funny thing happened on the way to what we all knew. There came rumblings of Nebraska having struck the fancy of the Big Ten and the Huskers have everything Mizzou has, only the football is better. (Darn it!) Then Texas, whose behavior is worthy of many posts, began to intimate that if Nebraska left, they had no interest in the Big 12. It was then clear that if Nebraska left, the Texas schools would bolt, probably to the Pac 10. Then it came out that Colorado would join the Pac 10 and they did. Then Nebraska joined the Big Ten. Now the Texas schools are free to make their own deal.

It looks as if the Pac 10 will add two or three Texas schools plus the two Oklahoma schools from the Big 12. The Big 12 will be history. Texas A & M may or may not go to the SEC. The SEC and the ACC and the Big East will consider their options and begin nabbing schools or have schools leave them or both. It's chaos.

Meanwhile, independent Notre Dame sits and watches one conference die, the remaining conferences strengthen and has to begin to ask itself, "Is the path to football glory, prominence and championships enhanced or weakened by independent status? Is the BCS going to favor the strong conferences? Or the strong schools in those conferences? What will happen to the Big East, where all our other athletics compete?" The importance of Notre Dame is that it's a school with a national audience. When they play, people are interested and TVs are on. Alumni are all over the country and the South Bend campus fits geographically into the footprint of the Big Ten TV network, which already is in 30 to 35 percent of homes in the country. Yes, that's a money part.

By taking Nebraska, the Big Ten reduced the number of possible seats at the conference's table. How many are available? Two more? Four more? I don't know. Neither does Notre Dame. Remember Missouri is a logical choice, so there may be one less seat. Maryland makes sense, too, so there's another seat gone, possibly. What about Rutgers or Syracuse and the New York City market? You know how to play musical chairs, don't you?

There is chaos out there and the herd may stampede very soon. Options will begin to disappear and Notre Dame knows it. Their AD said this thing will all settle out in 45-60 days. I think there is more meaning in his words than just the definitions. I think Notre Dame will finally jump and they will jump to the Big Ten and it will be in 45-60 days.

Remember how it began? An announcement that the Big Ten was looking to expand and they have hardly lifted a finger since and we've got chaos. Everyone knew they wanted Notre Dame and I think Notre Dame will run right into their waiting arms.

The Ground Will Shift, IV

Subtitle: The One Where Mizzou is Left at the Altar.

From NJ.com:

According to a report on orangebloods.com Nebraska has agreed to leave the Big 12 and join the Big Ten and will announce that decision on Friday. The report said if Nebraska leaves, the Big 12 will break apart.

The report also lists the Big Ten's priority wish list, as reported by ESPN, with Notre Dame being No. 1, Nebraska No. 2 and either Rutgers or Maryland as No. 3.

Well, now Kansas can laugh at me.

It appears that Nebraska has decided to join the Big Ten and it is only logical to assume they would not do so without assurances an invitation was forthcoming. If so, the Big Ten is now 12 teams and can hold a conference football title game at the conclusion of each season. This was a big goal for them. What would motivate them to add any more schools? I'm not sure what it would be and if Missouri has it.

Missouri still appears to be waiting for an invitation from the Big Ten, according to multiple sources.

An athletic director with knowledge of the Big Ten said, "Missouri is getting cold shoulder from Big Ten."

The fact is we don't know anything about Mizzou, in or out. Officials in Columbia have been very tight-lipped and nobody else is talking. So while it's not certain they are not invited, there's not much reason to hope. Yet.

From the Kansas City Star:

Missouri, meanwhile, is making my job a lot tougher but finally doing the right thing. Following advice of consultants hired to help guide them through the shoals of expansion, MU officials are maintaining a silence they have been unable to pull off for the last 25 years. Missouri has always been surrounded by "sources" more than willing to tell the media exactly what is going down. Now the powers that be at Mizzou are remaining mum in the face of rampant speculation and quite obviously have not shared details of what is or is not going on with a circle of people large enough to spring leaks.

The Ground Will Shift, III

For the Kansas Jayhawks and their proud basketball heritage, all this could not be more demeaning. All of a sudden, Kansas' status as a major player in college athletics has been placed in the hands of Nebraska and -- humiliation of humiliations -- archrival Missouri. (ESPN.com)

Heh.

Look, I understand the uncertainty. Later in this post we will see that Mizzou's fate is uncertain, as well. But still, it's KU. There's more:

While (Mizzou and Nebraska) decide whether to abandon the Big 12 for the more lucrative Big Ten, Kansas sits and sweats. A pullout by the Huskers and Tigers could result in the collapse of the Big 12 and strip Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State of the safety and privileges of membership in a Bowl Championship Series conference.

Heh.

I don't enjoy the demise of the Big 12, the successor of the Big 8, the longtime home of Mizzou athletics. But the clock was ticking as soon as Texas joined. Our neat little world became the Longhorns' playground and college athletics would never be the same.

ESPN Rumors is reporting that if Notre Dame decides to get into the Big Ten quickly enough, bringing that conference's membership to 12, then there may be no further expansion by the conference. This is the part where Mizzou gets left with nowhere to go. If Nebraska and Missouri do not commit to the Big 12, Texas, Colorado and four others will jump to the Pac-10. Couple that with the Big Ten suddenly being satisfied with adding only Notre Dame and the Tigers are out in the cold. This scenario is why I speculated that the Big Ten stirred this pot to create chaos to entice the Fighting Irish. The Big 10 has been strangely quiet since it began the whole thing.

Stay tuned.